Valuation
Why Do Some Luxury Watches Appreciate in Value?
30 December 2025 • 9 min read
It is a familiar story among watch enthusiasts: a particular model becomes hard to find, waiting lists grow, and prices on the pre-owned market rise. Yet for every reference that climbs in value, there are many more that simply hold steady or drift lower over time. Appreciation is real, but it is far from universal, and understanding why it happens helps put your own watch in perspective.
This guide explores the forces behind watch appreciation, including demand, scarcity, brand strength and the cycles of attention that sweep through the market. It also offers an honest word of caution, because treating a watch purely as an investment carries genuine risk. The aim is to help you think clearly about value rather than chase a trend.
Demand and supply, the core of the matter
At its heart, appreciation comes down to demand outpacing supply. When more people want a particular watch than there are examples readily available, the pre-owned market responds. This is most visible with a handful of steel sports models from the most sought-after makers, where production has not kept pace with desire.
Supply is shaped by how many examples were made, how many survive in good condition, and how many owners are willing to part with them. Demand is shaped by taste, reputation, visibility and the simple fact that some designs capture the imagination more than others. Where these two forces pull in opposite directions, values can move.
It is worth remembering that demand can soften as easily as it can build. A model that feels essential one year may attract less attention later, which is why no single watch can be assumed to keep rising indefinitely.
Discontinued references and scarcity
When a manufacturer discontinues a reference, the supply of new examples ends, and attention often shifts to the pre-owned market. If the model was well regarded, this can sharpen interest, particularly for the final versions of a long-running line or for variants that were only made in limited numbers.
Scarcity is not only about production figures. Certain dial colours, configurations or short-lived design details can make particular examples harder to find than their reference numbers alone suggest. Collectors often pay close attention to these nuances, and they can influence how a specific watch is received.
That said, scarcity on its own does not create value. A rare watch that few people want remains a rare watch that few people want. Scarcity matters most when it meets genuine, lasting demand for the model in question.
Brand strength and enduring design
Some makers have built reputations over many decades, and that standing supports the desirability of their watches on the secondary market. Names such as Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet are widely recognised, and their most established lines tend to enjoy consistent interest from buyers around the world.
Iconic designs play a large part. The Patek Philippe Nautilus and Aquanaut, the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak and a number of Rolex sports models have become reference points in watch design. Their familiarity and heritage give buyers confidence, which in turn supports demand over the long term.
Strong brands and enduring designs do not guarantee appreciation, but they do tend to provide resilience. A respected model from a respected maker is generally easier to sell and more likely to hold its appeal than a fashion-led piece with little history behind it.
Hype cycles and shifting attention
Watches, like many collectibles, are subject to cycles of attention. A model can attract intense interest for a period, fuelled by social media, celebrity wrists or simple scarcity, only for that heat to cool as tastes move on. These cycles can lift prices quickly and let them settle just as quickly.
Chasing a model at the peak of its popularity carries obvious risk, because the price you pay may reflect excitement rather than lasting demand. Conversely, quietly excellent watches sometimes go underappreciated for years before being rediscovered. Reading these currents is difficult even for experienced collectors.
The practical lesson is to be wary of treating short-term momentum as a permanent trend. Appreciation that rests on hype can reverse, while value rooted in genuine, enduring demand tends to be steadier.
Condition, originality and completeness
Even among models that are well regarded, the value of an individual watch depends heavily on its condition and originality. An unpolished case, an original dial and honest, well-kept components all support a watch's standing, while heavy wear or replaced parts can hold it back.
Completeness adds to the picture. Original box and papers, service records and accessories give buyers confidence and make a watch easier to sell. These factors do not turn an ordinary reference into a sought-after one, but they do help a desirable watch realise its potential.
In other words, appreciation is not only about choosing the right model. It is also about how well a particular example has been preserved, which is something every owner has some influence over.
An honest word on watches as investments
It is important to be clear-eyed about risk. While some watches have appreciated, the watch market can fall as well as rise, values are not guaranteed, and past performance offers no assurance of future returns. Watches also carry costs that financial assets do not, including servicing, insurance and the simple risk of damage or loss.
For most people, the soundest approach is to buy a watch because they admire it and will enjoy wearing it. If it holds its value, that is a welcome bonus rather than the reason for the purchase. Treating a watch as a guaranteed investment sets up expectations the market may not meet.
If you are considering selling and would like to understand how your particular watch sits in the current market, Sell My Watch Co offers a private, by-appointment assessment with an independent professional horologist. As a Sydney-based direct buyer, we can give you an honest, qualitative view without any obligation to proceed.